2020 seems a long time away, but since candidates start campaigning four decades prior to an election, it's really just around the corner. So, who will win?
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| Some say there's actually more than 3 trees |
The first contender is, obviously, the current (in 2020) president. Now, since we have no idea who that would be, and no matter what they'll be hated, we'll go for Hillary Clinton. She's the highest in the polls right now at 44%, and the NY Times estimates she has an 89% chance of winning. But that's for 2016. So much can happen in 4 years, and there's surely no way of predicting how well she will do for the next election.
Let's begin with her 'criminal record'. Although not charged, or prosecuted, it seems like Hillary's email scandal is getting worse and worse as time goes on. It's only time until WikiLeaks produces something that the US government (the guys who aren't Bill, Hillary and Monica) will care about. Assuming she doesn't get impeached, but the public opinion decreases somehow, she'll have a tougher time getting into the 2020 spot.
Another fun-loving-happy-topic is both the rising debt of the US and its citizens. Tuition fees and housing costs are already crumbling the economy, especially in the youth, yet it seems unlikely that Clinton will change these. Getting (legal, somehow) money from big banks and corporations for her campaign, she will side with Goliath in this fight, and I don't see her doing much for poor Dave any time soon. Unless the US economy dies, or its people do, she will stay in office until 2020.
However, fortunately for her, she'll be the sitting president. This means that, just because she already is, it's more likely she'll both get the a) Democrat nomination and b) a second term. Purely because it seems like other contenders will be dead, Trump, or pop icon, I'm going to say she has a 65% chance of becoming the President in the year 2020. (Unless any of the [somewhat likely] bad things come true, then it's only a 10%)
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| Two flags is overcompensation |
Really, who decides Clinton's presidency for the second term will be her rivals. With Trump's ambitious and groundbreaking presidential campaign for 2016, it seems likely he will run again in 2020. He (hopefully) would have seen the errors which led to his possible defeat, and might even promote more of his liberal ideas. Not getting too stuck up on policies, what he really needs to change to get a grasp of the White House is the middle class.
Trump, right now, is blowing it away with supporters who are of working class. He tells them what they want to hear, and blames their failing American Dream on things that, well, aren't him. Whether it's illegal immigration, the Clinton Foundation or Chinese productivity, the working class love him. If he's able to push for a more middle class vote, whilst keeping his working-class-yet-lovable policies, he'll do charmingly.
The slight hiccup is that, although in theory this works, he's still Donald Trump. As much as we wish he'll turn around and become this sensible, moderate God-Emperor that we would all adore, he still would make outrageous remarks that puts him in the news cycle for three weeks of hilarity. So, since the Donald never changes, and the USA definitely won't for him, he's at a 15% chance of winning. If Donald decides to become a president for everyone, however, I'd up him to a solid 25%.
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| Skin texture of a grilled cheese sandwich, but one which has been left in the fridge for one day too long |
Now, for the short and sweet outsiders. There's a third option, of course, from the 2016 election. Bernie Sanders: globally loved, politically admired, really old. He'll be 78/79 by the time the next election comes around. Not only will this endanger his chances just because of the vigorous campaign trail, but it would also be used as slander by his opposition. The oldest president to be elected was Reagan at 69. As much hope as Sanders says he can bring, we don't want another FDR on our hands. For this reason, and because he isn't a Colonel (which would increases definitely in the South-East), he has a 1% chance.
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| Worst ever puppeteer |
Who else, who can save us from these political woes? Of course, there's the one and only, the greatest, the Cruz. Ted Cruz is like a bright light at the end of the tunnel. Unfortunately for America, this bright light is a towering inferno accelerating and encompassing everything in its path for destruction.
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| This is a real tweet. Just think about that. |
Ted Cruz is what's making the GOP bipolar. Before the nomination, he was hated, an extreme outcast for his anti-establishment views but also for more extreme ideas, like starting an abortion war against women. So apart from his charm, what's he got? Well, since Donald Trump has clinched the nomination, Cruz has done spectacularly well in unifying the Republicans against the Donald. He's used a scare tactic to promote himself and has set him up for the 2020 election. Unfortunately for him, and fortunately for us, he's still crazy. Therefore, no matter how much unifying he does, the public, government and GOP will still see his insanity and his chances of winning dwindle. 2%, and that's generous considering his hate towards everyone who isn't a hetrosexual, white, Christian, married, middle-class Texan.
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| ...the Zodiac Killer was never found... |
But wait, what about those who didn't run this year. I know what you're thinking, and you're right.
Kanye West.
Millionaire rapper, husband, entrepreneur and gold digger investigator extrodinarie Kanye West. He announced his runnings in mid-2015, and since then the world has been on the verge of everything he hasn't said, because the world doesn't really care. Maybe a little harsh, but the man has no political background. Yes, he could be the Ronald Reagan of our generation, but I'm sure the mums of the 70s knew who Reagan was. My parents think Kanye West is a type of detergent, but not the expensive kind.
Celebrities have one advantage, (most) people know them, and their fanbase makes it easier to spread information and policies. In this information age, celebrities can trend and become famous in seconds, nothing is possible to be kept a secret. So Kanye has that going for him. However, he doesn't have the political awareness that he needs in the campaign. Assuming it's not a joke, he would have to begin now to create himself as a political idol in Washington, otherwise he'll be laughed at. Trump, although many disagree with his political attitude, has been in the realm of politics for decades, sponsoring and donating thousands of dollars to political heavyweights. Since Kanye is unlikely to grasp this political intelligence anytime soon, he has a 1.5% chance of winning, upped only because of his fame. If, however, he becomes politically aware, then I'd see him being the dark horse of the 2020 election, and he then has a 20% chance of winning.
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| That don't kill me, can only make me stronger - Kelly Clarkson |
Of course, we're forgetting this a two horse race, as always. So with that in mind, there's a prominent icons missing in this list.
Kang, although an outsider, and fictional, has extreme political sway in Washington, with the use of disguise, spaceships and mind control. Seriously, however, The Simpsons has actually calculated many correct things for the future, predicting smart watches, Farmville, Siri's failure of communication, and the horsemeat scandal. What are the chances they'll be wrong on this one? Since it's an almost certainty, the real aspect of chance is in the existence of alien life; the universe is infinite, which means it has to be true. So Kang has a 100% chance of winning, depending on his inevitable existence. But don't blame me, I'll be voting for Kodos.
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| It was either this or talk about another factory-made plastic politician and sometimes you just can't get enough of Kang. |
Now, not everyone can be included in such a strenuous list, and there is still 5 years for political heavyweights to come out of the fray. Who knows who will decide to run? To narrow it down, he's a comprehensive list of those most likely to run, and their chances of winning.
Hillary Clinton 60 %
Donald Trump 15 %
Elizabeth Warren 9 %
Cory Booker 3 %
Marco Rubio 3 %
Andrew Cuomo 2.5 %
Tom Cotton 2 %
Ted Cruz 2 %
Kanye West 1.5 %
Bernie Sanders 1 %
As the observant of you notice, there's still 1% left. That's for the other 322,762,008 US citizens eligible to run. If you are, good luck. You'll need it.
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